Climate change makes wildfires in California more explosive

Climate change has increased the risk of fast-spreading wildfires in California by about 25%, according to a new study.

Study insights: The new study, which utilized a machine learning model, analyzed over 18,000 California wildfires from 2003 to 2020, with a focus on rapid fire growth.
* The study found that out of these fires, 380 experienced at least one day of growth over 10,000 acres.
* Climate change increased the likelihood of such rapid growth in most, but not all, of the fires.
* The study identified critical thresholds affecting wildfire behavior, with a slight increase in heat potentially causing considerable danger.

Understanding the findings: The dangerous thresholds are primarily associated with a term called vapor pressure deficit.
* Vapor pressure deficit concerns how air pulls water out of combustible materials, a process enhanced by climate change’s heating effects.
* The study found that fires were almost five times more likely to explode if certain thresholds were crossed.

Future implications: Despite essential efforts to reduce global emissions, the risk of quick-expanding wildfires may continue to rise due to global temperature increases.
* The study predicts that the number of fast-growing fires could nearly double by the century’s end.
* However, smarter land and vegetation management can help offset climate-driven increases in fire risk.

Additional factors: Other elements, like high winds, land use, and vegetation changes, also play an essential role in fire behavior.
* More than 80% of U.S. fires are started by people, a problem that needs to be addressed to reduce risks effectively.
* Strategies like adjusting zoning policy, building codes, and fire-smart neighborhood design can be controlled by people and play a crucial role in reducing wildfire risks.

View original article on NPR

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